We're in the great game. Big, awards-baiting movies start coming out around now. The Weinsteins start pulling out all the stops. Filmmakers and actors are taken on a nearly six-month publicity tour. And at the end of it all: a golden statuette of a bald man holding a sword, and a lot of people crossing their fingers that they read the right envelope this time.
2017 has been an interesting year at the movies. The summer season felt like a bust, and so far there haven't been too many movies that completely wowed audiences. But as Awards season slowly kicks into high gear the real contenders are beginning to make themselves known in the Best Picture race. So let's take a look at the ten films with the best shot at Oscar gold.
Blade Runner 2049
A big sci-fi sequel isn't usually the stuff of Oscar glory, but it was just a couple years ago that the long-awaited Mad Max: Fury Road, buoyed by raves from audiences and critics, became a major Oscar player. Now we have another long-awaited sequel: Blade Runner 2049. The reviews are out, and more than just a quality follow-up to the Ridley Scott original, Denis Villeneuve's film is being hailed by many as a new masterpiece. Of course, Villeneuve himself is the other part of this. Hollywood's latest anointed "great director," plucked from snowy Quebec to become everyone's favorite mainstream visionary. From Sicario to Arrival, we're talking about a huge talent, and the industry can't get enough of him, which only adds to the chances that Blade Runner 2049 might sneak its way into the list of Best Picture nominees.
The Big Sick
Comedies don't always get Oscar love, but The Big Sick is no ordinary comedy. The hit from earlier this summer stuck around longer than anyone predicted, making almost everyone's best-of-the-year-so-far lists. The reason is clear: Not only is it one of the year's funniest films, it's also one of its more beautifully heartfelt. Written by Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, and based on their own experience, in which after dating for a while, Gordon fell ill and was put in a medically induced coma. Both a great relationship comedy, and a great film about getting to know your partner's parents, The Big Sick hit the mark in a way few films like it ever do. It helps that Nanjiani is great in the film opposite Zoe Kazan, and that Ray Romano and Holly Hunter are absolutely fantastic as well.
Call Me By Your Name
The most utterly ravishing film of the year. Armie Hammer and Timothée Chalamet are brilliant, and Michael Stuhlbarg brings a supporting performance you won't soon forget. The story of a teenager falling for his father's new student over one summer in Italy. A Bigger Splash director Luca Guadagnino has crafted an impeccable '80s fantasy. A gay romance that much like Moonlight last year, one that actually leaves the audience with a feeling of hope and a recognition of the beauty in love. Plus, it was written by former Oscars stalwart James Ivory, so it's got the pedigree.
Darkest Hour
Two movies about the Dunkirk evacuation in one year, but this is the more obviously Oscar-bait. It's got a literally giant performance from Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill in his first days as Prime Minister, and a relentless pace despite its ornery parliamentary setting. Whether or not you go in for this kind of film, it's sure to get a lot of love from Academy voters, including a Best Actor award for Oldman. A Best Picture nomination is practically a guarantee, appealing to all the same voters who fell hard for The King's Speech, and who love it when director Joe Wright brings his kinetic and visual flourish to potentially stodgy period pieces.
Dunkirk
Christopher Nolan has been vying for Oscar for years now, and finally he has a film that may seal the deal. Dunkirk is a filmmakers film if there ever was one. The sort of movie practically everyone in the Academy can't help but admire for its sheer scale and scope. Add to that the fact that it's a genuinely thrilling, intense film, and has already been called by many one of the very best films of the year and we're looking at a surefire Best Picture nomination—and Best Director to go along with it. The question will be whether Nolan's latest epic will once again stick to winning only in the technical categories or if he can finally claim a win for one of the top awards of the night.
Get Out
It's not often that a film released in February sticks around right through to Oscar season, but Get Out is practically guaranteed to be a part of the conversation. A win may be unlikely, but a nomination for Best Picture is almost a lock. The racially inflected horror film is one of the year's biggest hits, and one of the most admired films of the year. It marks Jordan Peele as a great new directing talent, and for an Academy that's letting a wide range of new voices into its voting body, Get Out is exactly the sort of film we're likely to see more of getting Oscar attention in the coming years.
Mudbound
Mudbound may be one of Oscar's bg surprises this year. The reviews have been great, but the reception has been somewhat muted by the fact that it's a Netflix film. Like all Netflix films, Dee Rees's period drama will be released to stream on its platform without much of a theatrical release. Do a Twitter search and you'll see people are watching and loving the film, but it's been hard to get a sense of that in the wider media. But look for Netflix to try hard to counteract that trend. Rees and the film stars will be out there promoting the film as much as possible, and given that Academy voters can watch the film very easily, it might just get in their heads enough to get it a Best Picture nomination when the time comes.
The Post
Nobody knows all that much about The Post yet. It's Steven Spielberg directing Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep in a legal drama about The Washington Post defending its publication of the Pentagon Papers. That's about all we've got to go on. But it's enough. Spielberg is loved by the Academy, as are Hanks and Streep. And then there's the political relevance. The Washington Post, given its reporting on the Trump administration, has rarely been more relevant or more popular among the liberal elite. And a story about the freedom of the press couldn't be more timely given the current political situation. Assuming the film is good—and considering it's Spielberg, it's likely to be much better than good—The Post is already looking like a serious Best Picture contender.
The Shape of Water
Guillermo del Toro has had an odd run of things in the years since Pan's Labyrinth. Hellboy 2 didn't exactly set the world on fire, and Pacific Rim made money, but it wasn't exactly Oscar stuff. And does anyone remember Crimson Peak? But now he may be back with something Oscar voters can get behind. The Shape of Water is an adult sci-fi fairytale about a mute woman who falls in love with a tall fish-man. Merman? Either way, it's got a stellar cast including Sally Hawkins, Octavia Spencer, Richard Jenkins, and Michael Shannon, plus reviews from film festivals have been mostly adoring. It's a stranger film than Oscar usually goes for, but it's also a simple story with a pure, romantic heart, and it's one Academy voters may well fall for.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Winning the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival immediately put Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri on the inside track for Oscar gold, or at least a Best Picture nomination. And as with La La Land and Slumdog Millionaire before it, there's a reason winning People's Choice is a good indicator of Oscar success: It means the people, real people, actually enjoy the heck out of the movie. And what's not to enjoy? Martin McDonagh's film features Frances McDormand in an excellent, at times hilarious and heartbreaking turn as a mother whose daughter was brutally murdered. She takes out three billboard ads to call out the local police for not solving the crime, which send the entire town into a madcap fury. Woody Harrelson also brings his A-game here, as do Caleb Landry Jones and Peter Dinklage. But along with McDormand, the other star of the show is Sam Rockwell, who perhaps has never been given a role more suited to his talents. It's a great film, and one you're likely to see among the nominees come Oscar night.
More films to keep an eye on: Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread
