North Korea successfully tested yet another long-range missile yesterday, one it claimed could target "the whole of the mainland U.S." with a nuclear warhead. State media claimed the missile involved is a new type meant to deter the "nuclear blackmail" and "nuclear threat" from the United States by holding any part of the country at risk of nuclear attack.
The new missile, known as Hwasong-15, was launched at 2:48 AM and splashed down in the Sea of Japan 53 minutes later. According to North Korea's Rodong Sinmun state newspaper, the missile flew a distance of 590 miles. That doesn't sound very impressive, and it isn't, at least until you realize it also flew to an altitude of 2,780 miles. That's eleven times higher than the International Space Station, which orbits Earth at an average altitude of 254 miles.
The Hwasong-15 was launched on a "lofted trajectory," which sends a missile on a parabolic arc that flies high but travels a short linear distance. Lofted trajectories are a North Korean specialty, making it easier to track the missile while avoiding sending it flying directly towards potential adversaries such as the United States. A missile that can successfully fly a lofted trajectory is also capable of flying a shallower ICBM-like trajectory, converting that altitude to linear distance. That is to say: If your arm (or in this case, a North Korean missile engine) can throw a rock high, it can also throw a rock far.
North Korea last tested an intercontinental ballistic missile in July, when the Hwasong-14 flew to an altitude of 2,300 miles. Pyongyang assigns a new name to missiles that have significant hardware differences from other models, so this Hwasong-15 must differ, via more powerful engines at one stage of the missile or another.
David Wright, a physicist and co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security Program, told the Washington Post that a missile capable of a lofted trajectory shot of 590 miles by 2,780 miles could probably have flown 8,100 miles. As this Bloomberg graphic shows, that is enough to indeed hit anywhere in the continental U.S., or Mexico or Cuba for good measure.
The Rodong Sinmum claims Hwasong-15 can lift a "super-large heavy warhead". Translation: the missile has enough power to lift a nuclear warhead. U.S. intelligence believes that North Korea will have the technology to successfully deliver a warhead next year.
Still, that's not as easy as it sounds. North Korea is thought to have had the ability to launch a primitive nuke at the U.S. for years, but the weapon would probably burn up on reentry. A test warhead in the July test did not survive reentry. North Korea's missile guidance technology is probably also too primitive to ensure hitting anything smaller than a U.S. state—think more Texas and less Rhode Island. That having been said, North Korea has demonstrated heat shield tests designed to simulate the rigors of high speed atmospheric reentry, and it is guaranteed to be working on an effective guidance system that will allow it to target cities.
North Korea is making rapid progress on its nuclear and missile programs, but this month's defection of a North Korean soldier to South Korea was a reminder of the price the country's population has paid for devoting 22 percent of the national economy to military spending. The defecting soldier not only suffered from hepatitis B and tuberculosis, he was also eating raw corn and his stomach was infested with parasites.
