Oscar night is a complicated one because unlike nomination morning, the parameters are already drawn. Favourites have been snubbed, and we'll now have to wait another 25 years for Adam Sandler to get the Oscar nomination he deserves. From here, all we can do is wait: wait to die, wait to live, wait for an absolution that would never come. Just kidding, that's from 1999 Best Picture winner, Titanic. All we can do now is guess on who is going to nab trophies this coming Sunday.
In this very suspect year of nominations, Joker leads the pack with 11 chances to take home a prize. It's been a bizarre awards season, with The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Marriage Story, and even Joker being the anticipated winner for Best Picture. Coming into Sunday's show, it appears that 1917 is the one to beat, fresh off a Director's Guild win. But what if we got to pick our winners and none of the politics or campaigning mattered?
Below are the predictions and wishes for the 2020 Academy Awards, and why at the end of the day, the battle isn't as complicated as choosing one over the other.
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Who Will Win: 1917
Who Should Win: Parasite
Arguing against 1917 is a difficult task because a) the Oscars loves a big war feature, b) this film has won every directorial and technical award five ways to Sunday, and c) it really is a revelation when it comes to filmmaking. Sam Mendes’s tale of World War I is deeply affecting on a sensory level, as well as an emotional one. However, Parasite’s potential victory would also be a revelation because it would be the first time a foreign-language film locked the win. And it should win because it’s a smart, terrifying take on class structure and a sly mix of desperation and manipulation that transcends language. 1917 will win the Oscar. Parasite will be the film we remember.
Lead Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Who Should Win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Okay, so Joaquin Phoenix is very good in Joker. But Phoenix is pretty much always good and has been better in about a half-dozen films throughout his career. There's just something so blah about awarding an Oscar to the second portrayal of a character in the course of 15 years. Meanwhile, Adam Driver’s turn in Marriage Story feels like a moment to be recognised. Driver’s star has only gotten brighter and you’d hope that the Oscars would want to celebrate that. Aside: had the Academy waited a few years and passed over The Revenant, a DiCaprio win for Hollywood would have been such a delicious and deserved lock.
Lead Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Who Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Who Should Win: Awkwafina, The Farewell
The Reneessaince is in full swing, and it’s a beautiful thing. Zellweger’s turn in Judy is handily the strongest of the bunch and deserves every bit of praise it’s getting. And it’s about time that we recognise the talent that is Zellweger. With that being said, Judy will not stand the test of time. It’s a film that feels like it was created for the sake of an Oscar campaign. A much more exciting winner would have been The Farewell’s Awkwafina, who exceeded expectations with her dramatic turn in Lulu Wang’s touching film about Chinese culture and death. It’s a shame she was snubbed by the Academy, and it’s a shame that she won’t be there on the night to be in contention.
Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who Should Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Give Brad Pitt his damn Oscar. And then give him an Emmy for the speech he will give. Sexy, sad, and comedic, Pitt’s turn in Hollywood is the best he’s ever been, and Pitt has always been good. That’s all we need to say about that.
Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Who Should Win: Florence Pugh, Little Women
What a strange category. So, knowing that Jennifer Lopez is out of contention for the Academy, I’ll make the same case for Laura Dern not winning that I would have for Lopez: it’s a character that felt too comfortable for either to be winning an Oscar for. While Lopez’s role in Hustlers was criticised for being too close to her own persona, Dern’s spicy lawyer in Marriage Story, while beautifully acted, feels like a rejiggered version of Renata Klein from Big Little Lies. Meanwhile, Florence Pugh managed to chew on Greta Gerwig’s beautiful script and bring Amy March to life in a way that she never has been played before. Comedic, poignant, and packed to the gills with personality, Pugh would make for an incredible surprise winner on Oscar night.
Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Who Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Who Should Win: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Much like Best Picture, it’s impossible to argue between these two. I want to break the trophy in half and award it to both of these filmmakers. Mendes revolutionised filmmaking with his “one shot” approach to 1917, but if you’ve seen Parasite, how can you not have an hour-long discussion about faces appearing as someone ascends a staircase? The craft that both of these men put into their films is incredible. I only wish that Gerwig were also in the mix.
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Dean DeBlois
I Lost My Body, Jeremy Clapin
Klaus, Sergio Pablos
Missing Link, Chris Butler
Toy Story 4, Josh Cooley
Who Will Win: Toy Story 4
Who Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Toy Story 4 was perfectly nice, but How to Train Your Dragon, much like Toy Story’s original ending, is the perfect finishing touch to a surprisingly underrated trilogy. Name recognition wins out here.
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Who Will Win: Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Who Should Win: Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Some might end up viewing this as the consolation prize for not getting the director nod she deserves. Granted, her take on Little Women made for an exciting and timely update to a 200-year-old story. Gerwig’s precision here is absolutely meticulous, walking a perfect line between modernity and dated language. There is simply no competing with Gerwig in this category.
Original Screenplay
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han
Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Who Should Win: Knives Out, Rian Johnson
While original screenplay could very feasibly go to Tarantino here (or Joon Ho), let’s play a fun game where we honor the most original, thoughtful “whodunnit?” script in recent memory. Rian Johnson’s Knives Out was a sleeper hit this year and really could have been afforded more nominations. A win for Johnson here would not be anything less than a welcomed surprise. That said, this is a strong category.
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory, Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar
The Cave, Feras Fayyad
The Edge of Democracy, Petra Costa
For Sama, Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
Honeyland, Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
Who Will Win: American Factory
Who Should Win: American Factory
For an American award show, there truly isn’t a more American story right now. And that’s not just to do with its American title. The Netflix documentary tackles the complicated territory of an Ohio factory and how technology is taking out the working class.
Best International Feature Film
Corpus Christi, Jan Komasa
Honeyland, Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
Les Miserables, Ladj Ly
Pain and Glory, Pedro Almodovar
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho
Who Will Win: Parasite, Bong Joon Ho
Who Should Win: Parasite, Bong Joon Ho
So, the complicated explanation here is that it would be very surprising for Parasite to win Best Picture and Best International Film (a forward-thinking renaming of Foreign Film), so in lieu of the near-certain snubbing in the Best Picture category, the Academy will award Parasite the win in this category.
Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet
Who Will Win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
Who Should Win: “Stand Up,” Harriet
No disrespect to Elton at all, whose song will almost certainly guarantee an Oscar for him and Bernie Taupin, but a surprise win for “Stand Up” would crown Cynthia Erivo one of the youngest EGOTs in history. Not to mention that it’s a damn powerful song. If the glitz and glam of Rocketman somehow fades, Harriet could very potentially pull off an upset.
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Justin Kirkland is a Brooklyn-based writer who covers culture, food, and the South. Along with Esquire, his work has appeared in NYLON, Vulture, and USA Today.
