This story is taken from Esquire's About Time newsletter, style director Johnny Davis’s straight-talking take on the wonderful world of watches. Sign up here.
The biggest event in the watch calendar is heaving onto the horizon.
Watches & Wonders, held every April in Geneva, is essentially a very posh trade show, where dozens of the biggest brands announce their new watches for the year. Fairly or not, there is one big brand that always gets the lion’s share of the attention.
That brand is Rolex.
Famously FIS-level secretive, the fact that a company that size can keep under its hat (crown?) what it plans to release each year is almost as impressive as the launches themselves. It is always a surprise, even if the surprise is something as apparently trolling as The Great Case Size Scandal of 2020, when its big announcement was an increase of the Submariner by 1mm, something that short-circuited the internet.
But then in 2023 Rolex seemed to go completely bananas (by Swiss/ Rolex standards, you understand, it's all relative), launching titanium versions of watches (Yacht-Master), watches with dials featuring balloons, jigsaw puzzle pieces and emojis (Oyster Perpetual; Day-Date) and a whole new line (the 1908, replacing its Cellini dress watches).
What might they have in store this year?
I called around some experts and asked them what they’d like to see Rolex announce. And then what they thought Rolex would actually announce.
Oliver Müller, watch industry analyst/ strategist
“The Milgauss will be relaunched either this year or next year. I would expect them to do that for many reasons. The first reason being they will probably improve the resistance to magnetic fields to compete with Omega on the Master Chronometer with its 15,000 gaus. [Omega’s Globemaster Master Chronometer, released in 2015, was certified to have the ability to resist magnetic fields so strong you could wear it in an MRI machine. What's that? You can’t lift your arm to tell the time in an MRI machine? You’re missing the point]. It has no practical consequence. But just saying ‘I can do as good, or even better, than my competitor’, that would be one thing. The next one which is logical would be the new 1908 line which will they probably extend again – with either a GMT or a moonphase. And because they used it on the Yacht-Master would expect them to deploy titanium – I’m just not sure if they would do it only on the Submariner or only on the Explorer, but I would expect there to be one or two. And probably knowing my good friend [he means Jean-Frederic Dufour, CEO Rolex Group] he will provoke again this year with some funny things like he did last time with the puzzle or the balloons. So, I expect him to animate one of the lines to create a buzz. He’s very smart. He creates the buzz and people are even more crazy about Rolex afterwards.”
Tony Traina, editor, Hodinkee
“They gave us a two-tone Explorer 36 a couple of years ago, but if they gave us a full gold, that’d be crazy. I doubt it’ll ever happen, but you never know. They did the 1908 last year, which was a bit predictable, as far as dress watches are concerned. I’d like to see if they could develop that. When they introduced it they said it was a new collection. So, I don’t know if that means complications, different sizes, different metals. The 'puzzle dial' was impressive, actually, from a craftsmanship perspective. I’d like to see if they’d expand on the use of enamel, that would be awesome. If they moved upmarket with that playful colour stuff and put it in a Day-Date – maybe it’s in the form of enamelling, or maybe bringing back the true lacquered [1970s] Stella dials that those OPs [Oyster Perpetuals] were playing off. So, we get real, lacquered Stella dials in a Day-Date. But we’ll see!”
Barbara Palumbo, aka @whatsonherwrist
“Seeing the brightly coloured bubbles on the dial of last year's steel Oyster Perpetual release brought such a smile to my face. It showed me that Rolex could have a little fun. But I don't believe they'll do that again in 2024 – my guess is they will wait another year or two. I think they may be reading the ‘80s/90s throwback’ room and will release one or more watches that are two-toned – yellow gold and steel. Last year's two-toned GMT-Master II release may have been a precursor. I feel they may surprise us by introducing two-tone in collections that wouldn’t normally be so daring.”
Eric Wind, owner, Wind Vintage
“I’d love to see some of the 1950s-style watches bought back. Whether it’s the Explorer or the Milgauss with a honeycomb dial. And I’d love to see the Explorer II go back to 39mm, like the originals from the 1970s with the orange [GMT] hand. The [current] 42mm size is just too big. They’ve done a lot with the Daytona recently, including the ‘Le Mans’ with the black dial [announced last summer], but I wonder if they wouldn’t consider doing something with a white dial variation, which would be cool, like the original watch Paul Newman wore. They don’t have 34mm watches anymore. That’s such a nice size for a lot of people, whether male or female or anywhere in between. I would love to see them have that as a size again. In terms of what I think will be done, I would expect they’d do more with the 1908, which replaced the Cellini. They had a really nice moonphase Cellini which came out some years back. So, a more complicated 1908 seems like something they should do. They’ve been toying a lot with enamel dials so I would expect them to do more with that. White gold models have been pretty hard for them to sell, other than the ‘Le Mans’ Daytona. The GMT sells for almost a $10,000 discount on the secondary market. So, I don’t know what they’ll have to do to make the white golds more interesting to people. Probably some more interesting colours, whether it’s for the Submariner or the GMT. The general strategy of Rolex over the past five years has been to push more and more people into precious metals. They had been very successful with that, but the market has softened over the last year. So, they’re going to have to continue to do innovative and interesting dials and bezels."
Brian Duffy, CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group
“Nobody knows. It’s amazing to me how they manage to keep so much secrecy in their organisation and somehow manage to surprise us every time. Every year all speculation tends to be pretty much 100 per cent inaccurate. I hope they don’t do a lot. We have extensive lists of a lot of people waiting patiently, for a long time, for product. The less they do in the way of introductions [ie: new models], the more they’ll be able to help us make customers happy that have ordered new products last year, or the year before, or the year before that, and still haven’t got them. The list for Datejusts and GMTs and Submariners just continues to get longer. It’s huge demand-versus-supply. There’s nothing that they’ve introduced for as long as I’ve been involved that doesn’t result in frenzied interest. But I’m going to contradict myself. When you do see what they release, it’s fantastic. And I look forward to being thrilled again this year.”
Rikki [it’s just ‘Rikki’], editor, Scottish Watches
“I hope they continue to shock and they don’t just revert to moving the Photoshop slider on the bezel [ie: adding or subtracting a couple of millimetres here or there]. I think we’ll see titanium spreading across the range, into the Submariner, the Deepsea, the Sea-Dweller, to take away some of the heft but still having massive amounts of water resistance, which everybody loves. Last year the bubbles and the puzzles were completely out of leftfield, and it would be good to see more of that. What do I think Rolex will actually do? Probably drop the precious metals down to steel as they have done historically. Maybe moving the clear caseback from selected Daytonas to other Daytonas because the movement is half-decent looking. The thing I’ve noticed from previous watch fairs is there does seem to be a tick-tock between [sibling company] Tudor and Rolex. One year Tudor would go ‘Oh, there we go, there’s a GMT with a Pepsi bezel’ and nothing would happen at Rolex. Next year Rolex would do something cool. I do think this will be the year of the Coke [ie: bringing back the red-and-black GMT-Master II] – they’ll decide to roll out the black and red bezel and kick things up a gear.”
Andrew Morgan, AMW, luxury watch consultants
“If I were to say what would I like them to do, it would probably be the Coke. That’s what everyone has been asking for. I think what will be challenging is the confusion they’ve got themselves into with some of the anniversaries. The Submariner they say [came out in] ’53, but they didn’t release an anniversary watch for it last year. So some of the predictions are that they might release an anniversary model this year. Which aligns with when experts generally believe the Submariner really came out, which was ’54. They might have started thinking about it in ’53 but it was announced at Baselworld [watch fair] in ’54. And the Coke – people also believe that it was '54 that [the original GMT-Master] was announced, but Rolex counts that as '55, So an anniversary Submariner and an anniversary GMT-Master both seem to be on the cards at some point. But if it’s the thing we’re expecting it’s probably the thing they won’t do. Or if they do, they’ll be in precious metals that nobody can afford. I’d also quite like to see a moonphase version of the 1908. I was surprised last year that the Yacht-Master was the watch that came in titanium, and not the Sea-Dweller – I wonder if a Sea-Dweller in titanium might appear this year? The Yacht-Master II is probably one of the most hated watches in the Rolex line-up. It’s due an update. I’d be interested to see what would look like. It’s one of the most complicated watches they make, and it’s been sat there doing nothing. Rolex also has a whole bunch of different patents. They put them forward to stop anyone else [making similar watches], if nothing else. One that interested me was a perpetual calendar system that has been massively simplified. It’s a much more robust and simplified version compared to what is typically quite a delicate mechanism. So, I’d be interested to see if they’re going to do a Sky-Dweller Perpetual Calendar. That would be very cool. The patent was quite recent, actually [June 2023]. And it shows a lot of detailed drawings that demonstrate how the mechanism works. If I were Rolex, I would be thinking that I wouldn't want to show how it works... until the product is ready to go.”
Rob Coder, editor, WatchPro
“Rolex has been increasing its production of the steel professional watches [eg: Daytona, Submariner, GMT-Master, Explorer II] that have had the longest waiting lists over the past year, so I would expect that strategic direction to close the gap between demand and supply to continue. This suggests 2024 will be about peak manufacturing, without compromising Rolex’s quality control standards, rather than a significant change to the product line. There will be some red meat for the Instagrammers, as the business delivered with its emoji Day-Date last year, but every novelty must be judged for its impact on peak productivity. I would manage my expectations to a slew of line extensions across the GMT-Master family, which is celebrating its 70th anniversary. Or could there be a rabbit in Rolex’s hat and a GMT-Master III with some subtle advances in design and engineering?”
This story is taken from Esquire's About Time newsletter, style director Johnny Davis’s straight-talking take on the wonderful world of watches. Sign up here.
Guido Mondani, publisher/ author, Mondani Books
“I think they will present a new Submariner, with innovative features. I also think they should release Rolexes with transparent casebacks.”
Ex-Rolex employee
“Everyone thinks Rolex makes tiny changes to their existing watches each year. That’s true. But it hides the insane amount of market research they do. Of all the watch companies I’ve worked for, there’s nothing that even comes close to it. If they release a watch in titanium, that’s because that is where the market is heading. If they do one with a joyful, colourful dial, same thing. No other luxury brand has the market share they now have – 30 per cent at retail – on a mono-product brand. That is unseen anywhere else. Not Louis Vuitton, not Gucci. No one else can pretend to capture 30 per cent of the market on their own. Like everyone, I have no ideas. But whatever it is, that is where the market is going.”
Justin Hast, writer/presenter/consultant
“I love the Milgauss and I’ve always wanted to wear one but I just don’t like the bracelet. The issue I’ve had is the polished centre-link – this is how detailed my thought process has been! I love the GV crystal [green-tinted sapphire crystal] and I love the lightning bolt second hand. Because, to me, it’s so un-Rolex. But I hate the fact that the centre link is polished. So, I would love, this year, to see a new Milgauss with a brushed Oyster bracelet, new crown guards and a 40mm case – and a new movement. In the industry we’ve seen a real push towards anti-magnetism. So I’d love to see some innovation there. And at an accessible price point. That would be wicked.”
I also asked the Reddit forum r/rolex what they’d like to see. Here are some of the more publishable responses.
“Tiffany turquoise Sky-Dweller”
- u/CHP2277
“Green dial Daytona”
-u/Maleficent-Water5698
“Travis Scott x Sub”
-u/rowthecow
“Here is a crazy thought. How about just get stock to dealers with what’s in the catalogue right now’
-u/SupectN0451
“Brand new line. Slight variations are dull”
-u/MerlynAFC
“Coke”
-u/yld2Rob
“Pepsi with a white dial”
-u/interianism
“I would just like for them to sell me a freakin watch ”
-u/Mammon84
This story is taken from Esquire's About Time newsletter, style director Johnny Davis’s straight-talking take on the wonderful world of watches. Sign up here.
